spellchecker parametrically: 32-day stretch of no U.S. military combat deaths is longest in 6 years

Saturday, February 23, 2013

32-day stretch of no U.S. military combat deaths is longest in 6 years

No U.S. military personnel have died in combat since Jan. 20, a 32-day stretch that is the longest in six years and marks a welcome trend in the deadly 11-year war, the Department of Defense said Thursday.

Sgt. Mark Schoonhoven of Plainwell, Mich., died last month from wounds suffered Dec. 15, 2012, when enemy forces attacked his unit with an improvised explosive device in Kabul, but the 32 days since then marks the longest period without a fatal casualty since the 57 days between Dec. 15, 2006, and Feb. 8, 2007, the DOD said.

The lull in deaths comes as President Obama plans to bring some 34,000 troops home from Afghanistan within a year, just over half of the 66,000 still stationed in the region.

Lt. Cmdr. Bill Speaks, a spokesman for the Department of Defense, offered several reasons for the stretch, including the fact that the winter months have usually seen the lowest casualties.

More importantly, Speaks said, U.S. forces are in the final stages of the transition to Afghan security command.

"Nearly 90 percent of all operations in Afghanistan (are) now being led by their security forces," Speaks wrote in an e-mail. "Their casualty figures have increased, as coalition casualties have dropped."

Speaks said violence continues to decrease. While no data are available for 2013, he said enemy-initiated attacks in 2012 were down 7 percent from the previous year. Civilian casualties dropped 12 percent in the same period, he said.

Army Sgt. Steven Checo, 22, of Elizabeth, became the first service member with ties to New Jersey to die in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan when he was killed in a predawn firefight in Afghanistan, near the Pakistan border, on Dec. 21, 2002. A decade later, Marine Cpl. Christopher Monahan Jr., 25, of Ocean Gate, became at least the 48th service member with ties to New Jersey to die in Afghanistan since the war began in 2001. Another 102 New Jerseyans have died in Iraq since 2003.

There were 312 U.S. Military combat deaths in 2012, according to Department of Defense figures, down from 413 in 2011.

There have been three deaths so far this year.

Defense officials and military analysts caution against seeing the drop in death as a sign of victory.

"There?s no causality here," American Foreign Policy Council vice president Ilan Berman said. "We should not take a decrease in casualties by itself as an indicator of flagging resolve on the part of our enemy."

Berman said as troops return home and the American footprint diminishes, there are fewer available targets.

The time of year should not be overlooked, said Richard Betts, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City.

"My only reaction would be that we haven?t really started what we call the fighting season," Betts said. "It?s possible that a long stretch like 32 days is just a coincidence. Occasionally there are breaks in patterns."

But if the defense department is right that the lack of fatalities is linked to the transition to Afghan control, Betts said it could be a positive sign.

"American strategy is to hand over responsibility for counter-insurgency. If that is what?s been happening, it sounds like it?s in line with what was intended," he said. "I?d like to think the Taliban is running away in defeat, but I don?t think that?s the case."